Antidumping Reform in the Doha Round: A Pessimistic Appraisal

Trade reformers have attempted to revamp antidumping (AD) procedures for many years, most recently in the Uruguay Round. Antidumping once again is on the multilateral trade reform agenda in the Doha Round. Evidence presented in this paper suggests that substantial, and perhaps even modest, AD reform is unlikely to occur. The principal reasons are two-fold. First, the growing list of countries that use antidumping extensively has created new groups that will resist reform. Secondly, traditional AD users, especially the U.S., have shown strong resistance to further reform and have implemented past reform in a minimalist fashion. Even if substantial changes are forthcoming (e.g., introduction of a “lesser duty rule”), experience with antidumping reform from the Uruguay Round, most notably in the United States, means that the economic impact of reform could be limited. Paper prepared for “The Economics of the Doha Round and the WTO" University of Hong Kong December 16-17, 2005 Michael O. Moore Professor of Economics and International Affairs Elliott School of International Affairs The George Washington University Washington, DC 20052 Contact information Voice: +202-994-6157 Fax: +202-994-6147 E-mail: [email protected]